| # | Height | Date | Block reward | Daily issuance | Market structure at the time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | 210,000 | 2012-11-28 | 50 → 25 BTC | ~7,200 → 3,600 BTC | Tiny market, largely technical participants, essentially no derivatives |
| Second | 420,000 | 2016-07-09 | 25 → 12.5 BTC | ~3,600 → 1,800 BTC | First one widely anticipated; mining already industrialised into pools |
| Third | 630,000 | 2020-05-11 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC | ~1,800 → 900 BTC | Coincided with a year of large-scale central bank easing |
| Fourth | 840,000 | 2024-04-20 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC | ~900 → 450 BTC | Shortly after US spot ETFs opened; the halving block itself carried unusually high fees |
| Next | 1,050,000 | ~2028, hash-rate dependent | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC | ~450 → 225 BTC | — |
The last column is the most important one on this page. It shows that every halving arrived alongside a completely different market structure and different major variables — which is why these five rows do not constitute a comparable series. Why that alone defeats the “halvings are followed by rallies” inference: does the price always rise after a halving.
Estimate the next halving from a block height
The arithmetic is fully disclosed: next halving height = ceiling(current height ÷ 210,000) × 210,000; remaining blocks × average block time = estimated time remaining. This is arithmetic, not a forecast — the real date drifts with network hash rate and converges as the height approaches. Everything runs in your browser and nothing is uploaded.
What else is certain
- A halving requires nothing from you: no wallet upgrade, no transfer, no “confirming your holdings”. Any message demanding an action for a “halving upgrade” is a scam.
- It triggers on block height, not a date: the exact date can only be estimated in advance.
- Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks: the negative feedback loop that holds the average block interval near ten minutes, and the reason a halving lands roughly every four years.
- Fees rise as a share of miner revenue over time: each halving steps that ratio up.
Full mechanism in what the halving is and what actually happened each time.